Market Daily Update- July 19th

A lot of the data points come from Hedgeye.com. Subscribe to the, if you want to find a better way to risk manage your capital.

Daily Brief:

S&P closed the day in the green, hitting a high of 3936. The VIX (volatility index) closed the day down 3.24% at 24.57. We had a big bear market rally today with all major index closing big on the day. With that said commodities (CRB Index) continue to fall. CRB closed down -0.37% on that day and closed at 304.83.

Major moves of the day:

Bond Yields

30YR closed at 3.17%

10YR closed at 3.02%

2YR closed at 3.23%

Yield curve is completely inverted with a 21 basis point inversion.

Commodities

Oil ended the day up 4.75% at $104.

Gold finished at $1711 up 0.15%.

Natural Gas finished slightly down at $7.30 down -2.37%.

Steel finished up 3% on the day at $3826 and down 13% on the month.

Nasdaq closed up 3.11% on the day at 11,713 and Russel 2000 closed up at 1799, up 3.5% on the day.

Big Tech (Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, Netflix, Apple) all had great days. Netflix had a big move up of 5.6%. China (SSEC) closed about flat for the day at 3279.

Europe (Italy, France, Germany, Poland) ended up big on the day but it is still trending down.

The Dollar Index closed down 0.60% at 106.72.

Crypto BTC is up 7.79% on the day at $23,226. ETH up 5.15% on the day at $1,553. MSTR up 18.4% closing at $267 and COIN up 12.2% closing the day at $65.83. I am not chasing anything crypto here, only shorting.

Thoughts on today and going into Tomorrow

I added to some of my shorts today: XRT, NFLX, AAPL, JNK, HYG, PEB, HZO, XLY, TSLA. There are no signs here that the bear market is over. The yield curve is completely inverted and the 10YR seems to have peaked and we could start seeing people pile into bonds. And after big down turns in the market, it is typical to see big bounces, but I would not be long equities, crypto, or commodities here.

That’s all for now,

Wassim